Dynamic prediction of mortality in COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit: A retrospective multi-center cohort study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to overwhelm intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide, and improved prediction of mortality among COVID-19 patients could assist decision making in the ICU setting. In this work, we report on the development and validation of a dynamic mortality model specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients and discuss its potential utility in the ICU. Methods: We collected electronic medical record (EMR) data from 3222 ICU admissions with a COVID-19 infection from 25 different ICUs in the Netherlands. We extracted daily observations of each patient and fitted both a linear (logistic regression) and non-linear (random forest) model to predict mortality within 24 h from the moment of prediction. Isotonic regression was used to re-calibrate the predictions of the fitted models. We evaluated the models in a leave-one-ICU-out (LOIO) cross-validation procedure. Results: The logistic regression and random forest model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 [0.85; 0.88] and 0.86 [0.84; 0.88], respectively. The recalibrated model predictions showed a calibration intercept of -0.04 [-0.12; 0.04] and slope of 0.90 [0.85; 0.95] for logistic regression model and a calibration intercept of -0.19 [-0.27; -0.10] and slope of 0.89 [0.84; 0.94] for the random forest model. Discussion: We presented a model for dynamic mortality prediction, specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients, which predicts near-term mortality rather than in-ICU mortality. The potential clinical utility of dynamic mortality models such as benchmarking, improving resource allocation and informing family members, as well as the development of models with more causal structure, should be topics for future research.

Airborne SARS-CoV-2 RNA excretion by patients with COVID-19 on different oxygen-delivery systems: a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Concerns persist regarding the risk of airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission by patients with COVID-19 on various modalities of oxygen therapy, such as high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC). AIM: We aimed to compare the presence of airborne RNA in air samples between groups of patients with COVID-19 on different oxygen-delivery systems. We also explored factors that were associated with SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity in air samples. RESULTS: Air samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA in three of 39 patients (8%) on HFNC, 0 of 13 (0%) on masks, versus five of 20 (25%) on nasal cannula. Odds ratio for air sample positivity was 0.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11-2.34) when comparing HFNC vs non-HFNC group, and 5.78 (1.24-27.01) for nasal cannula vs non-nasal cannula group. Patients with positive air samples in comparison with those with negative air samples were sampled earlier after symptoms onset (median: 7 vs 10 days; P=0.04) and had lower Ct values of diagnostic nasopharyngeal samples (median: 22 vs 26; P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Air sample positivity was not related to oxygen support device but to viral load. These data suggest that the use of personal protection equipment should be based on risk management according to viral load rather than oxygen support device.

In-depth assessment of health-related quality of life after in-hospital cardiac arrest.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on physical and psychological well-being of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) survivors is scarce. The aim of this study is to describe long-term health-related quality of life (HRQoL), functional independence and psychological distress 3 and 12 months post-IHCA. METHODS: A multicenter prospective cohort study in 25 hospitals between January 2017 - May 2018. Adult IHCA survivors were included. HRQoL (EQ-5D-5L, SF-12), psychological distress (HADS, CSI) and functional independence (mRS) were assessed at 3 and 12 months post-IHCA. RESULTS: At 3-month follow-up 136 of 212 survivors responded to the questionnaire and at 12 months 110 of 198 responded. The median (IQR) EQ-utility Index score was 0.77 (0.65-0.87) at 3 months and 0.81 (0.70-0.91) at 12 months. At 3 months, patients reported a median SF-12 (IQR) physical component scale (PCS) of 38.9 (32.8-46.5) and mental component scale (MCS) of 43.5 (34.0-39.7) and at 12 months a PCS of 43.1 (34.6-52.3) and MCS 46.9 (38.5-54.5). DISCUSSION: Using various tools most IHCA survivors report an acceptable HRQoL and a substantial part experiences lower HRQoL compared to population norms. Our data suggest that younger (male) patients and those with poor functional status prior to admission are at highest risk of impaired HRQoL.

Airborne SARS-CoV-2 in home and hospital environments investigated with a high-powered air sampler.

BACKGROUND: The initial aim was to study the effects of face masks worn by recently infected individuals on the airborne spread of SARS-CoV-2, but findings motivated us to proceed with comparing the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in air samples near infected individuals at home with those near infected intensive care unit (ICU) patients. AIM: To assess the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the air of homes of infected individuals and in ICU rooms of critically ill patients with COVID-19 who were undergoing different forms of potential aerosol-generating medical procedures. METHODS: A high-volume air sampler method was developed that used a household vacuum cleaner with surgical face masks serving as sample filters. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was harvested from these filters and analysed by polymerase chain reaction. Fog experiments were performed to visualize the airflow around the air sampler. Air samples were acquired in close proximity of infected individuals, with or without wearing face masks, in their homes. Environmental air samples remote from these infected individuals were also obtained, plus samples near patients in the ICU undergoing potential aerosol-generating medical procedures. FINDINGS: Wearing a face mask resulted in a delayed and reduced flow of the fog into the air sampler. Face masks worn by infected individuals were found to contain SARS-CoV-2 RNA in 71% of cases. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in air samples regardless of mask experiments. The proportion of positive air samples was higher in the homes (29/41; 70.7%) than in the ICU (4/17; 23.5%) (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 RNA could be detected in air samples by using a vacuum cleaner based air sampler method. Air samples in the home environment of recently infected individuals contained SARS-CoV-2 RNA nearly three times more frequently by comparison with those obtained in ICU rooms during potential aerosol-generating medical procedures.

Anti-infectious decontamination strategies in Dutch intensive care units: A survey study on contemporary practice and heterogeneity.

PURPOSE: Despite increasing evidence and updated national guidelines, practice of anti-infectious strategies appears to vary in the Netherlands. This study aimed to determine the variation of current practices of anti-infectious strategies in Dutch ICUs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In 2018 and 2019 an online survey of all Dutch ICUs was conducted with detailed questions on their anti-infectious strategies. RESULTS: 89% (63 of 71) of the Dutch ICUs responded to the online survey. The remaining ICUs were contacted by telephone. 47 (66%) of the Dutch ICUs used SDD, 14 (20%) used SOD and 10 (14%) used neither SDD nor SOD. Within these strategies considerable heterogeneity was observed in the start criteria of SDD/SOD, the regimen adjustments based on microbiological surveillance and the monitoring of the interventions. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of Dutch ICUs applying SDD or SOD increased over time. Considerable heterogeneity in the regimens was reported. The impact of the observed differences within SDD and SOD practices on clinical outcome remains to be explored.

Clinically relevant potential drug-drug interactions in intensive care patients: A large retrospective observational multicenter study.

PURPOSE: Potential drug-drug interactions (pDDIs) may harm patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Due to the patient's critical condition and continuous monitoring on the ICU, not all pDDIs are clinically relevant. Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) warning for irrelevant pDDIs could result in alert fatigue and overlooking important signals. Therefore, our aim was to describe the frequency of clinically relevant pDDIs (crpDDIs) to enable tailoring of CDSSs to the ICU setting. MATERIALS & METHODS: In this multicenter retrospective observational study, we used medication administration data to identify pDDIs in ICU admissions from 13 ICUs. Clinical relevance was based on a Delphi study in which intensivists and hospital pharmacists assessed the clinical relevance of pDDIs for the ICU setting. RESULTS: The mean number of pDDIs per 1000 medication administrations was 70.1, dropping to 31.0 when considering only crpDDIs. Of 103,871 ICU patients, 38% was exposed to a crpDDI. The most frequently occurring crpDDIs involve QT-prolonging agents, digoxin, or NSAIDs. CONCLUSIONS: Considering clinical relevance of pDDIs in the ICU setting is important, as only half of the detected pDDIs were crpDDIs. Therefore, tailoring CDSSs to the ICU may reduce alert fatigue and improve medication safety in ICU patients.

A cross-sectional investigation of communication in Do-Not-Resuscitate orders in Dutch hospitals.

BACKGROUND: The decision to attempt or refrain from resuscitation is preferably based on prognostic factors for outcome and subsequently communicated with patients. Both patients and physicians consider good communication important, however little is known about patient involvement in and understanding of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) directives. AIM: To determine the prevalence of Do Not Resuscitate (DNR)-orders, to describe recollection of CPR-directive conversations and factors associated with patient recollection and understanding. METHODS: This was a two-week nationwide multicentre cross-sectional observational study using a study-specific survey. The study population consisted of patients admitted to non-monitored wards in 13 hospitals. Data were collected from the electronic medical record (EMR) concerning CPR-directive, comorbidity and at-home medication. Patients reported their perception and expectations about CPR-counselling through a questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 1136 patients completed the questionnaire. Patients' CPR-directives were documented in the EMR as follows: 63.7% full code, 27.5% DNR and in 8.8% no directive was documented. DNR was most often documented for patients >80 years (66.4%) and in patients using >10 medications (45.3%). Overall, 55.8% of patients recalled having had a conversation about their CPR-directive and 48.1% patients reported the same CPR-directive as the EMR. Most patients had a good experience with the CPR-directive conversation in general (66.1%), as well as its timing (84%) and location (94%) specifically. CONCLUSIONS: The average DNR-prevalence is 27.5%. Correct understanding of their CPR-directive is lowest in patients aged ≥80 years and multimorbid patients. CPR-directive counselling should focus more on patient involvement and their correct understanding.